Texas State's Growth and San Marcos Housing Trends

How is Texas State University's growth affecting San Marcos housing and the Hill Country real estate market?

Texas State University's record-breaking Fall 2025 enrollment of 44,596 students is directly pressuring housing supply in San Marcos and pushing demand outward into New Braunfels, Canyon Lake, and Bulverde. With only about 10,000 students housed on campus, tens of thousands of students, faculty, and staff compete for off-campus housing each year, sustaining rental demand, supporting investor activity, and creating spillover opportunity across the South and Central Texas Hill Country corridor.

What the Numbers Actually Tell Us

Let me start with the scale, because it matters more than most people realize.

According to Texas State University's own news release, Fall 2025 enrollment hit 44,596 students, a 9.6% jump over the previous all-time record set just a year earlier. That's not a blip. That's sustained, accelerating growth.

The Texas State facts and data page puts San Marcos' 2025 population estimate at roughly 77,830 people. So you have a city of about 78,000 with more than 44,000 students enrolled at a single institution. Nearly 10,000 of those students live on campus. That leaves a substantial number looking for housing in the surrounding community every single year.

And the growth isn't stopping. Texas State is actively investing $50 to $80 million in doctoral education as it works toward Carnegie R1 research status, a transition projected for around 2027. More graduate students, more research faculty, more support staff. The housing demand equation only gets more complex from here.

Spring 2025 enrollment also crossed 37,000 for the first time, which tells you this isn't just a fall-semester story. The pressure on San Marcos housing is year-round now.

The On-Campus Gap

With roughly 10,000 students in on-campus housing and more than 44,000 enrolled, the off-campus demand is structural, not temporary. That gap drives a specific kind of real estate ecosystem: purpose-built student apartment communities with per-bed leases, three- and four-bedroom houses configured for roommates, smaller multifamily properties, and duplexes within biking or bus distance of campus.

Leasing cycles in San Marcos run heavily on the academic calendar. Most student leases flip in August, which means move-out and move-in traffic, listing activity, and rental pricing all surge in the summer months. If you own rental property near campus, that rhythm shapes everything from your vacancy rate to your maintenance schedule.

Texas State Enrollment Milestone	Figure	Source / Date
Fall 2025 total enrollment (record)	44,596 students	TXST News, September 2025
Year-over-year enrollment increase	9.6%	TXST News, September 2025
Spring 2025 enrollment (record)	37,567 students	TXST News, Spring 2025
On-campus residents (San Marcos campus)	~10,000 students	TXST Facts & Data page
San Marcos estimated population (2025)	77,830	TXST Facts & Data page

The Spillover Effect: New Braunfels, Canyon Lake, and Bulverde

Here's what I see consistently with clients who work at Texas State or are connected to the university: San Marcos isn't the only place they're looking. The Hill Country corridor absorbs a meaningful share of the housing demand that Texas State generates.

Faculty, graduate students, and staff routinely ask me whether they're better off buying in San Marcos for the short commute or trading that convenience for more space and a different lifestyle in New Braunfels, Canyon Lake, or Bulverde. There's no universal right answer, but understanding what each market offers matters before you decide.

New Braunfels

New Braunfels sits roughly halfway between San Antonio and Austin along I-35, which makes it a natural landing spot for Texas State employees who want to stay connected to both metros without paying Austin or San Marcos prices. According to Zillow's New Braunfels market overview, updated September 2025, the average home value was around $355,000, down about 4.4% year-over-year, with homes typically going under contract in about 57 days.

That modest price softening doesn't signal weakness so much as a market that was running hot and has found a more sustainable pace. For someone priced out of San Marcos or looking for more square footage, New Braunfels continues to offer real value, especially with the Guadalupe River corridor as a lifestyle anchor.

Canyon Lake

Canyon Lake in Comal County draws a different kind of buyer. The waterfront and hill-view properties here attract Texas State-connected households who want a weekend retreat, a short-term rental opportunity (subject to local regulations), or a primary residence with a longer commute tradeoff. The housing stock skews toward larger lots and detached homes, and the community character is distinctly different from the I-35 corridor. For the right buyer, that's exactly the point.

Bulverde

Bulverde offers semi-rural, lower-density living in the Hill Country that appeals to professionals who work partly remote or split time between San Marcos and San Antonio. It's further from campus than New Braunfels, but for someone who only needs to be on-site two or three days a week, the tradeoff for space and quiet can make sense. I've worked with clients who commute from Bulverde to Texas State and genuinely love the arrangement.

The point is that Texas State's growth doesn't just affect San Marcos real estate. It ripples outward, and the Hill Country communities along and off the I-35 corridor all feel it in different ways.

What This Means If You're Buying, Selling, or Investing

The university's footprint shapes strategy depending on what you're trying to accomplish. Let me break down how I think about it for each type of client.

If You're an Investor

Properties within biking or short driving distance of campus carry a structural demand advantage. Three- and four-bedroom homes that can accommodate roommates, small multifamily properties, and townhomes near campus all benefit from the annual reset of student housing demand. The National Association of Realtors consistently documents that university towns tend to support lower vacancy rates and more stable long-term appreciation than comparable non-university markets, precisely because enrollment provides a demand floor.

That said, investing near a university isn't without complexity. Lease management, property turnover, and wear-and-tear are real considerations. Some investors hedge by targeting properties that can serve both students and young professionals, which broadens the tenant pool and reduces exposure to enrollment fluctuations.

The specific numbers for your situation depend on the property, the location relative to campus, and current market conditions. That's a conversation worth having before you make an offer, not after.

If You're Buying a Primary Residence

Owner-occupants who work at Texas State or in San Marcos generally face a choice between convenience and lifestyle. Buying closer to campus means a shorter commute and access to the cultural amenities the university brings: performing arts, athletics, research events, and a vibrant downtown riverfront. But neighborhoods near campus also see more turnover, more rental conversions, and the seasonal rhythm of student move-ins and move-outs.

Neighborhoods slightly further from the campus core, or in New Braunfels and Canyon Lake, tend to offer a quieter character with more traditional owner-occupant density. The right choice depends on your priorities, and the only way to get clarity is to walk through specific options with someone who knows both markets.

If You're Selling

Texas State's growth expands your buyer pool in a meaningful way. A home in San Marcos or the surrounding Hill Country can attract families with TXST employment, investors looking for rental income, parents purchasing for their students, alumni returning to the area, and remote workers drawn by the cultural energy the university creates. That diversity of demand is an asset when you're pricing and marketing a property.

Your actual net position depends on your home's condition, location relative to campus and amenities, and what the current market is doing at the moment you list. That's exactly the kind of analysis I run for every seller before we decide on a strategy.

In Texas, your transaction will close through a title company, which handles earnest money, coordinates with lenders and agents, and provides title insurance. For Hill Country properties especially, working with a title company experienced in rural characteristics like wells, septic systems, and private road access matters more than most buyers and sellers expect.

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Frequently Asked Questions

How is Texas State's enrollment growth affecting housing prices and rents in San Marcos?

With 44,596 students enrolled in Fall 2025 and only about 10,000 housed on campus, off-campus demand is structural and year-round. That sustained demand supports rental rates and home values in neighborhoods near campus, particularly for properties suited to student and young-professional households. Specific pricing shifts depend on the submarket and property type, so a current local market analysis is the most reliable way to assess your specific situation.

Is San Marcos still a viable option for non-student buyers, or is it becoming a college-rental town?

San Marcos has both dynamics operating at once. Neighborhoods closer to campus have seen more rental conversions and investor activity, while areas farther from the core remain primarily owner-occupant. The city's downtown riverfront, cultural amenities, and I-35 access continue to attract non-student buyers, including remote workers, alumni, and families connected to the broader Austin-San Antonio corridor. The right neighborhood depends on your priorities, and that's a conversation worth having before you start touring.

If I work at Texas State but want more space, should I look in New Braunfels, Canyon Lake, or Bulverde?

All three are legitimate options depending on your commute tolerance and lifestyle preferences. New Braunfels is the most practical for a daily commute along I-35, with average home values around $355,000 as of mid-2025 and solid inventory. Canyon Lake suits buyers who want a lake-oriented lifestyle and can handle a longer drive. Bulverde works best for those who work partly remote or commute only a few days a week. I work with clients across all three markets and can walk you through the tradeoffs for your specific situation.

What types of investment properties make the most sense near Texas State?

Three- and four-bedroom homes within biking or bus distance of campus perform well as student rentals because they accommodate roommates and reset demand annually with each academic year. Small multifamily properties and townhomes offer flexibility by attracting both students and young professionals, which hedges against enrollment shifts. The strongest investments tend to be properties that work for multiple tenant types, not just students, so vacancy risk is spread across a broader pool. Your specific numbers depend on current cap rates and local market conditions, which I can walk you through before you make any commitments.

Are new apartment complexes and student housing projects keeping up with Texas State's growth?

Purpose-built student housing has expanded in and around San Marcos, but a 9.6% enrollment surge in a single year creates demand that supply-side development struggles to match in real time. NAR research on university housing markets consistently shows that supply lags enrollment spikes, which sustains pressure on both rents and home values near campus. Whether that gap is currently narrowing or widening in San Marcos specifically is something I track closely and can speak to directly when we connect.

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Texas State's record enrollment isn't a one-year story. It's a sustained, structural force reshaping how housing demand moves through San Marcos and ripples outward into the Hill Country. Whether you're buying, selling, or evaluating an investment, understanding that force gives you a real edge.

I'm Drake Carter, and my team works this corridor every day. If you want a clear picture of what the market looks like for your specific situation right now, let's talk. Schedule a discovery call at carterteamtx.com/schedule and we'll start with the details that actually matter for your move.

About Drake and Michelle Carter

Drake and Michelle Carter lead The Carter Team, a full-service real estate group serving the South and Central Texas Hill Country corridor with genuine local guidance for buyers, sellers, and relocating clients.

Keller Williams Heritage · 361-720-0340

Equal Housing Opportunity. Drake and Michelle Carter are licensed Real Estate Agents regulated by the Texas Real Estate Commission (TREC). TREC Information About Brokerage Services and TREC Consumer Protection Notice are available upon request. This article is general information only and is not legal, tax, or financial advice. Confirm your specific numbers with your title company, tax advisor, or lender.